Blangraphs

Just thought I'd dig out a few classic Phillies memories before the season starts:
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Yesterday afternoon Blanton heaved 2 innings against the Yankees in his much anticipated season debut. He smashed the Bronx Bombers with a 5-0 ground out to fly ball ratio and struck out the mighty RAULLLLLLLLLLLL to end the first. All indications lead to a mighty season of Blandomination with Joe once again heavily featuring the dreaded A.B.P. (Amazing Blanton Pitch).

GO JOE

Big Joe's Cy Young/MVP/World Series Hero/Ultimate Champion/Blangraph's Player of the Year campaign begins tomorrow afternoon against the Yankees. The 1:05 EST will be televised on MLB.tv- game starters aside from Joe have yet to be announced.

For a preview Blangraphs looks to give a prediction of Joe's numbers this year.

IP       K/9    BB/9      HR/9       BABIP     LOB%     GB%      HR/FB      ERA      FIP      XFIP    WAR
257.66 8.5    1.2       .3         .300        60%      64%       10%        1.01      1.02     1.00      8.6

This was a prediction run with a Blantonian correlation coefficient of 1.0, run ten bajillion times in my head. The % error for a prediction run this way is .001%. The image rendered with this prediction is as follows.

GO JOE!

There has been some discussion about doing the unthinkable, trading JoeyB. As pointed out by David Murphy (link) there are some problems with this financially speaking for both the Phillies and the team who would be acquiring him. But who cares about all that, let's talk Blanton.
 IP       K/9    BB/9      HR/9       BABIP     LOB%     GB%      HR/FB      ERA      FIP      XFIP    WAR

41.1

7.62

1.96

1.09

.362

70.9 %

55.0 %

13.9 %

5.01

3.63

3.15

0.6

That is Joey's line from 2011, not bad for 40 innings?
But the Phillies have just signed a durable pitcher who wins ballgames in Kyle Kendrick you say? Well then why bother with Joe! He is clearly inferior! Bring on Kendricks line!!

 IP        K/9    BB/9    HR/9     BABIP        LOB%       GB%        HR/FB      ERA     FIP    XFIP   WAR

114.2

4.63

2.35

1.10

.261

76.1 %

45.3 %

10.5 %

3.22

4.55

4.42

0.2

Wait a minute! According to last years data Kendrick wasn't so great... In fact it looks like he got a little lucky maybe... Well we have two years to find out! I'd also like to point out Joe's higher K/9 and lower BB/9 and higher GB% (betcha didn't see that coming!).

You are have undoubtedly been  screaming since you started reading this, 40 IP???!??!?! YOU MONSTER THAT'S TOO SMALL A SAMPLE SIZE, JOE SUCKS. Well phooey.

Why (besides a small sample size) might Joe be better last year than he was previously? Did he become more ferocious and intimidating. Probably. But might there be another reason? Maybe a new pitch selection?
                              Fastball        Slider        Cutter            Curveball         Changeup              

2010 Phillies      54.6% (89.4) 13.1% (82.9)   6.5% (87.8)    9.3% (77.1)      16.5% (82.0) 2011 Phillies 46.8% (89.0) 16.2% (82.8) 10.7% (86.0)  10.2% (76.2)           16.0% (81.9)

Yes! He is throwing his fastball 10% less! the real gains are in his slider and cutter. According to Pitch/fx his cutter is moving horizontally almost double what it was moving in 2010 and his sinker which I believe has been lumped into the fastball category has increased by almost 10% has gained some horizontal movement, although it has lost vertical movement.

What is most encouraging about Blanton is that his fastball velocity has stayed almost exactly the same from the beginning of his career to the end of last season, which would otherwise raise concern.

Durability has  been the main concern with Blanton going into this spring but I have something that will put us all at ease and calm any clamor for the trading of our superstar ace in the hole.

"I feel really good so far,"..."I didn't really stop throwing through the winter. I've had no problems." -Joe Blanton

VERY GOOD PITCHER, you got that right Dubee! Good luck Joe!

I went to one game at CBP last season, the Valdez epic.
I remember that Halladay was starting and he didn't have his best stuff that day, although he still pitched 7 innings and gave up 3 runs. He gave up a ton of hits probably struck out a bunch of batters probably didn't walk many.
I remember next to nothing about the offensive- I know Ibanez ended it with a sac fly in the 19th to Stubbs, I was sitting right next to Stubbs when he caught the ball and slowly jogged in to the dugout with it not even feinting a throw.
But I do remember Bastardo coming in and I thought it was over, but Bruce who was on a tear lately hit a blast and tied it. The next couple innings were a blur until Baez entered.
Baez was in my opinion the least effective pitcher the Phils have fielded since Jose Mesa trotted out there to try to close games. Baez miraculously got through one inning and I turned to my Mom and said "Now they must win."
They didn't.
Baez blew through 4 more innings! He gave up just 2 baserunners the whole time.
The offensive like I said was not memorable.
(I know they brought in Utley to pinch hit and he was intentionally walked, much to everybodies chagrin.)
Then the amazing 19th inning-
Valdez moved from 2nd to pitcher, Polanco moved from 3rd to 2nd, Ruiz moved from catcher to 3rd and Sardinha came in to catch.
The first hitter was Votto- MVP.
He smashed a ball to dead center which I knew was gone but Martinez awkwardly hustled over and caught it near the track.
Rolen stood in and was immediately hit by a slider (yay!).
Bruce popped one up to the third base side- Ruiz gave chase and dove over the tarp in an attempt to catch the ball but was unable to reach it. Amazing
Then the opposing pitcher who had thrown something like 90 pitches (Fisher?) came up to bat and popped one up to Polanco. 3 outs.
The 5,000 people left went wild and they won it in the bottom.
This was the only time I felt love for Wilson Valdez, I always viewed him as a mediocre fielder who hit into a ton of double plays. But at this moment Valdez was the hero of the season. I'll always remember this game and it will certainly be Philadelphia's fondest memory of Valdez.
Valdez was recently traded to the Reds for a LHP- I guess they didn't want to be beat again.
In any case, farewell sweet prince.