Injuries

Get better Ryan, Cole, Ross, and Hunter!

Season Over

Friends, another season is finished.
      While it didn't end as we had hoped we can't complain too much about how great our team played this year. Our staff pitched like aces and our batters scored us enough runs for 103 wins, a team record. I still believe this was the best Phillies team that they have ever fielded. Unfortunately they ran into a dry spell in the playoffs, were the pitchers were slightly vulnerable and batters just couldn't quite get their hits. Still, it really was a great season. Losing 1-0 in 5 games while heartbreaking is not something be ashamed of.

    Looking ahead I personally hope they are able to retain Rollins and Madson, they are two of my favorite Phillies. I'm looking forward to Brown starting opening day in left field, and of course Joey B taking the hill next season. I suppose it's time to say goodbye to Ibanez, Oswalt, Lidge, and Gload. While they all had their moments I don't think losing them will be a huge blow to our chances next year. We still get to trot out Halladay, Lee, Hamels every three days next year- I like our chances.

It was a great ride 2011, we'll miss ya.
-Blangraphs

ALERT! BLAN SPOTTING!

Joe Blanton: The Reliever

Since returning from the DL with elbow crankiness Blanton made 5 appearances in relief. His numbers played out like this: 8IP, 2ER, 11K's, 0BB's, .875WHIP. Ka-Joe!

The Stopper!

The Return

September 12, 2011. It's a calm night at Minute Maid park, in the bottom of the 8th inning, and number 56 is kicking the dirt on the mound. For the first time in months, Kentucky Joe Blanton is going to pitch in the majors. He looks in at Humberto Quintero, a right-handed catcher. Blanton chooses his pitch and uncorks a slider in the dirt. This deceptive dart of a pitch was just a bit overdone, and Quintero smiles, thinking about how close he was to being fooled by Blanton. Ball one.

Getting set again, Blanton calmy maneuvers his body behind the baseball, subtly and harmoniously working all of his muscles to power the ball with a wave of Newtonian fury. Quintero can't catch up to the missile, finding that his bat has only gone a quarter of the way around before the ball is past him. Strike one.

On the next pitch, Blanton makes his only mistake of the night. Blanton unleashes his deceptive change-up, but Quintero is ready and thumps it into left field for a single. Jason Michaels stands ready, slowly walking into the batters box. He won't be there for long.

O, how many batters have stood where Michaels now stands, and O how many have felt a surge of confidence, ready to prove that the unassuming man on the mound, whose movements are slight, and who appears average in so many ways, is their lesser? How many such men have imagined that Joe Blanton will be a footnote in the tale of their glory? To Michaels, the ball seems to take an eternity as it leaves Blanton's hand and approaches him, and he is brimming with anticipation.

But as so many learn, and try to forget, there is layer upon layer of maddening mystery in the strategy of the man on the mound. The pitch, seemingly slow and pedestrian, is not quite where it should be, and Michaels finds his bat awkwardly, embarrassingly, underneath the ball, chopping it into the sky. It floats harmlessly in the air and nestles itself in the glove of Michael Martinez.

The next batter is Jordan Schafer. he mangles the first pitch into a bouncing foul ball, as if he is crumpling a beautiful picture into a ball. He knows that his approach was wrong, but he feels close, since he put the bat on the ball. He steps outside the box and tries to get a bearing on his situation. When he is ready, he steps back into the box and glimpses Blanton staring in. The visor of Joe's blood-red cap casts a shadow over his face, and Schafer cannot see if Blanton's eyes hold any sympathy for the hopeless hitters he is facing. As Schafer tries to grasp this fleeting thought, Blanton hurls the ball past him for strike two.

The next pitch is high, and the fourth pitch flirts with the outside corner, and Schafer kicks the dirt nervously. What will happen next? Perhaps Blanton will get a grip of his location and finally throw a strike. The last two have been close ones, and he'll probably stop fooling around and challenge Schafer. That sounds perfect, because Schafer feels that on this pitch, he is truly ready. Blanton exhales, touches his cap, and deals the pitch. It takes a split second to arrive. Schafer sees a somewhat lazy fastball leaving Blanton's hand, but his heart sinks almost as quickly as the ball. It's the slider again! Schafer finds himself flailing by the time the ball arrives, and he returns to the dugout.

Angel Sanchez is the Astros' last chance against Blanton. He drops into a coiled stance that suggests he has lashed many a difficult pitch into unexpected singles and doubles. He takes the first pitch outside. On the next pitch, he gets one in the strike zone, and he strikes. With a quick stinging motion, he attacks the ball, only to realize that it will not leave the infield. The ball bounces harmlessly to Jimmy Rollins, and Blanton's dominance is complete.

Ladies and Gentlemen...

Joe Blanton pitched a perfect game* today in the minors.




















































(if a game is defined as one inning)

Cliff Lee I

Vangraph

Vance Worley has pitched well. After another great performance against the Giants he has lowered his ERA down to 2.35 for the season and picked up his 8th win.

Worley's ascent to the majors seems to have a bit of a surprise to most of us though. He as never regarded as a top prospect and not even included in the Halladay, Lee, or Oswalt talks. So why is he now so good?

The answer that seemed most obvious to me was he was probably getting somewhat lucky. I headed to Fangraphs and looked it up and indeed the two factors I always look at first to see if a pitcher has been getting some good luck indicated that Worley's awesome 2011 has been a bit lucky. His BABIP is .247, which for almost every pitcher averages out to .290 for the year, and his HR/FB ratio is 5.6%, which usually averages out to 9.5% for every pitcher. Ok so he has been lucky, but is that the only thing to say about his fantastic year? He has shown a pretty good strike out rate and a league average BB%. Fangraphs also has a great pitching tool called FIP which basically measures a pitcher on only things he can control, strike outs, walks, hit batters, and homeruns. Keeping in mind Worley's HR/FB%, his FIP is a quite good 3.28, sandwhiched between Michael Pineda and Tommy Hanson. An FIP this good assumes that he has some control over his HR/FB%, and maybe he does, but normalized his xFIP is 3.76 which is right between Alexi Ogando and Chris Volstad(!). Hopefully he has some control over his HR/FB%, it wouldn't be unprecedented. Matt Cain has a career HR/FB% of 6.7% over 1200 innings. If Worley can keep his rate somewhere around there then we can expect his FIP to stay closer to 3.3-3.4 rather than 3.8. His BB/9 and K/9 seem to be improving as the season goes on which is very encouraging, over the past 2 months his BB/9 and K/9 have both been above league average (along with his K%).

So from what he know so far, Worley is probably not as good as his ERA and win/loss totals indicate, but he has demonstrated that he can be an above average starting pitcher. For a team with the payroll restraints the Phillies now have from signing big free agents like Halladay and Lee; having an above average starting pitcher making minimum salary is quite valuable. Worley has been a real pleasure to watch so far this season and it appears he will be a quality asset to the Phils for quite some time.

Thnx ZWR

Live blogging: Because Blanton is Jo-more

No more starting for Joe in 2011

Via Todd Zolecki and the zozone.mlbblogs.com reporters have spoken to Ruben Amaro and Joe Blanton will most likely not start another game this season.
This is a harsh blow to all of us working at Blangraphs and the Phillies. He is without a doubt the heart and soul of this blog. Blanton finishes his year starting for the first place Phils with a 1-2 record and a 5.50 ERA. The loss of Joe almost assures us of KK staying on the roster for the remainder of the season in his place. (Unless Oswalt can make it back, then I would have to think Worley would hold a spot over Kendrick.)
While the ERA and win/loss totals aren't pretty Joe had good peripherals that pointed towards him rebounding in the second half. (See http://blangraphs.blogspot.com/2011/04/for-real-though.html)
Blanton is still under contract for just 8.5 million for next year so maybe we can expect his glorious 30 win season in 2012.
A glimmer of hope when all seems dark... there was some indication that Joe may pitch out of the bullpen still this year with the likes of Ryan Madson, Antonio Bastardo (or Bastadson), Mike Stutes, and Brad Lidge.
So despair not, we may yet see Joe on the mound during the World Series... striking out Endy Chavez to win it all for the Fightin' Phils.

Blandate

Joe Blanton has not pitched since May 14th against the Braves. Even in that game his elbow was bothering him and he gave up two home runs over 5 innings. The Phillies ultimately lost 3-5. Since then he has been on the DL with as far as I can tell has only been publicly diagnosed as "crankiness". He has since been resting his elbow in the hopes that it would heal itself but after a bullpen a few days ago he felt the same symptoms. It's a shame really as Blanton was predicted to win 15-30 games by 100% of Blangraphs readers.

Here is what Blanton had to say about his injury. "I think I'm just trying to stay attuned with what's going on," Blanton said. "But it feels the same as it did before. It's not, 'Oh, maybe you just have some soreness.' It's the same as it was. So the rest period didn't work, so we'll see where we go from here."

Any future updates on Blanton's health will be covered and posted here on Blangraphs.

Cole Hamels, Destroyah

Hamels has so far K'ed 7 of the first 9 Padres he has faced.

Has he stolen the title?

Where's Blanton?

Find all the injured Phillies pitchers! Lidge, Contreras, Madson, Oswalt, and Blanton.

Click to enlarge

Blanton:VI

Blanton's new game face

BLANTON vs. VÁZQUEZ

RETURN OF THE BLANTON!

Barksdale

2007-"Tangled with All-Star Carlos Lee, the sinkerballer got the grounder he wanted, a three-hopper to Jimmy Rollins. He smoothly fed Utley at second, and onto Howard at first.

It appeared the game was over, except that Barksdale didn't agree. Biggio scored the tying run on the play, though television replays showed Utley's throw clearly beat Lee by a half-step. With no red flag available to challenge the call, as in the NFL, the Phillies were helpless.

"Part of the beauty of this game is there are human elements," Eaton said. "That's one of those plays where 99 times out of 100, he gets it right."

This story has it all, Carlos Lee, Antonio Alfonseca, and Adam Eaton saying things that no one could agree with. Also Barksdale was sorta a jerk.

2010-

Roy Halladay argues with Lance Barksdale. Roy Halladay is always right. Barksdale = jerk.

2011-

Lance Barksdale rings up Ibanez from 3rd base. Delayed call. When Manuel goes out to argue he is tossed before he gets past the pitchers mound. Total jerk move.

Lance Barksdale is by far my least favorite major league umpire, and I don' think I even know more then 3. Not a great distinction. Anyway here is a picture of the jerk master.

"Lance" Barksdale, major league umpire or mastermind drug dealer?

Hmmm

Most horrific pun ever?
From the Phillies website-
"Oswalt's return to Phils still up in the air"

Vance

Do Joe proud, Vance!



NOOOOOOOOOOOO

...OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
OOOOOOOOO

Snorkel

In preparation for his next start against the Mets Joe Blanton decided to take the day off and...


Went snorkeling!

MVPolanco

Browsing the wins above replacement leaders today I noticed something interesting. MVPolanco has exactly the same WAR as Alex Rodriguez. According to the first thing I googled MVPolanco is making $ 5,416,666 this year whereas Rodriguez is making $ 32,000,000.

Using my stellar math skills this means that the Yankees are paying nearly 6 times as much for the same production from the same position, and as I recall Rodriguez is signed for that salary for another 6 years.

Yikes.

This isn't exactly a small deviation actually- Going back to 2010 to present Rodriguez has been worth only .1 wins more than MVPolanco and played only 1 game less, (and 34 fewer plate appearances). I think a lot of MVPolanco's value is derived from his superior fielding over that period of time but still- impressive.


Does this mean by the transitive property that MVPolanco has made 12 Allstar teams, won 3 MVP awards, 10 silver sluggers, 2 gold gloves, and 1 2007 Pepsi Clutch Performer of the Year award (He was an April nominee)? Maybe, but it definitely means the Phillies have made a wise investment over the past couple seasons bringing Polly back to play the hot corner.

For Real Though

Does it sometimes seem like when you sit down to watch Blanton pitch that he always gives up lots of runs?
Yeah we noticed that, too. As great a pitcher as Blanton is there are somethings that even he really can't control such as the bloopers that fall in and the "clutch" hits that other teams get against him. Blanton really has had some bad luck to start the year.

 First let's look at his BABIP- which is 3rd highest in the league at .357 I think a usually BABIP hovers around .300. The ball is finding the hole more often than expected when Big Joe is on the mound resulting in more hits and more baserunners.

Next let's look at LOB% which is 63.5% for Blanton right now. A league average LOB% is ~72%. Meaning that 8.5% more runners have scored than we would expect. His Hr/Fb rate is almost exactly league average which means he isn't leaving especially juicy meatballs up there.

It's not like he's Kyle Kendrick up their with K's either. Joe has a respectable 6.29 K/9 and a good BB/K rate of 2.22 (for comparison Cliff is 1.11, but it's never really a fair comparison with Cliff.). Also Joe's groundball rate is among the leaders with a GB% of 55.6%. More than half of the balls hit off Joe are grounders.

So somewhat unexpectedly Blanton is putting together the peripherals for a very good season. He has already put together .4 more WAR than fan favorite JA Happ has for Houston this year and posted an xFIP (basically expected ERA) lower than Tim Hudson, Yovanni Gallardo, and Matt Cain.

Also word on the street is that he has developed an ABP.

By the hammer of Blan!

The A.B.P.



Even though this is a stats-oriented blog, it's worth covering something that exists outside of the realm of widely accepted metrics. Once or twice a game, Joe Blanton will be in a difficult situation, maybe the bases are jammed with batters who reached on seeing-eye singles or there's a fleet-footed runner on third who hit a triple in Petco. In these times, Blanton can look sweaty, nervous, even overmatched, but he is actually reaching for the legendary Amazing Blanton Pitch (ABP). The ABP is used only in these one or two situations per game ("let this be a light in dark places") but it is unmistakable when it comes around. For those who have their doubts about Blanton, look for the ABP and set your mind at ease.

IV.

Blanton looks to mow down the Padres tonight


Blanton: III

Blanton goes again tonight against the Greinke-less-Gallardo-floppers. Joe is looking to rebound a bit from his last 2 starts that as we all know have not gone according to plan. The Brewers are anchored by a strong offense, and also someone named Mcgehee which I'm pretty sure he just spelled wrong on his contract. Liveblog at game time.

Joltin' Joe will brew his own beer, thank you very much


Blogging Blanton-Brewers Battle

TONIGHT! LIVE coverage of Kentucky Joe (projected season record: 24-1, projected ERA: 1.84) against Shaun Marcum (2-1, 2.55). SEE the liveblog here as the national television audience gets their first look of the year at the MVP favorite on ESPN at 7:05.

Technical Difficulties

Joe has discovered a mechanical problem that is causing him trouble out of the stretch. Presumably he'll work this out and go back to being practically unhittable for the rest of the season. Rich Dubee doesn't agree, but he of all people should know not to question the judgment of The Great One. Don't you know that Joe has a posse, Rich?
pitching mechanics photo from drivelinebaseball.com

Blanton Bonus

Blanton: II

Friends tonight is a very special night. Two of the greatest pitchers of our generation are going at it in a battle for the division crown. Livan v. Blanton. An epic battle of 80 something mph fastballs vs. the "Blanton Blazer" coming in at 89.4 mph. Set your alarms for 7:05 est. It truly is a clash of the titans tonight.

Blanton to the left, Livan to the right

Joe the Lumber

This graph demonstrates Kentucky Joe's malice with the stick at the plate relative to other well known stars of the diamond. I think the graph pretty much speaks for itself.

Blanton: I

Joe Blanton Joe Blanton Joe Blanton

Joe Blanton (First start of season, 3-1 career vs. Mets) and the Phillies (3-1) against Mike Pelfrey (opening day starter, 0-1) and the Mets (3-1) in a battle for first place. Be here for the liveblog!

A Case of the Blandays

With the Phillies off today, excitement is growing about the first Joe Blanton start of the season. The Mets have skipped a beat in their rotation in a panicked attempt to make Wednesday's contest a fair fight. Opening day starter Mike Pelfrey (0-1, 10.38 ERA) is set to oppose Blanton. In other Blanton news, a compilation of recent Joe quotes can be found on Google.

Blanton fact of the day: #2 hitters have a worse slugging percentage against Blanton (.313) than #9 hitters (.314). Watch out, Willie Harris.

Opening Day!

We here at Blangraphs embrace all baseball teams (except the Braves, Mets, and Yankees). So I'm going to take this opportunity to liveblog one of our favorite pitchers opening day start. World Series MVP Livan Hernandez!

Joe Blanton- Innings Eater

Joe Blanton is often described as an "innings eater". This is usually regarded as a good quality is an otherwise ho-hum pitcher. But no one has analyzed the numbers like we do here at BG. From just 6 of Blanton's starts this spring we were able to analyze just how incredible an innings eater we can project Blanton to be this summer. Look at this graph.

Using the equation derived from this graph we estimate Joe Blanton will pitch 224 innings in his 30th start. And assuming he is able to reach his average of about 30 starts...


Blanton is expected to pitch 1605.57 innings this year! Incredible.

Covering it, Live!

Friday Afternoon Live Joe

12:49 PM: Joe Blanton getting ready to start his first second spring training game of 2011 against Pittsburgh in Bradenton, Florida.  Joe will throw his first pitch in the bottom of the 1st.
12:56 PM: The game is scheduled to begin at 1:05.  Blanton will face Jose Tabata, Pedro Ciriaco, and Neil Walker in the first.


continued in the live blog above

The Big Five

The entire sports world has been buzzing about Clifton P. Lee.  Since he signed on at Philadelphia, many have already declared that the Phils now have the best 5 man rotation in baseball, consisting of Joe Blanton, onetime SEC strikeout leader, Cliff Lee, Cy Young winner, Cole Hamels, World Series MVP, Roy Oswalt, a good pitcher and capable outfielder, as well as a promising young talent, Roy Halladay, who showed a lot of upside last season with his Cy Young win, playoff no-hitter, and perfect game.

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